ASTM E1369-15
选定用于处理建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中不确定性和风险的技术的标准指南
Standard Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildings and Building Systems
ASTM E1369-15 发布历史
ASTM E1369-15由美国材料与试验协会 US-ASTM 发布于 2015。
ASTM E1369-15在国际标准分类中归属于: 91.010.20 合同方面。
ASTM E1369-15 发布之时，引用了标准
- ASTM E1057 建筑物和建筑系统投资的内部回报率和调整的内部回报率的测算
- ASTM E1074 测量建筑物和建筑系统投资净收益和净储蓄的标准做法
- ASTM E1121 建筑物和建筑系统投资的偿还率测算
- ASTM E1185 选择经济方法评估建筑和建筑系统投资的标准指南
- ASTM E1946 测量建筑物和建筑物系统成本风险的标准操作规程
- ASTM E2204 总结建筑相关项目的经济影响标准指南
- ASTM E631 房屋结构的标准术语
- ASTM E833 建筑经济学相关标准术语*， 2023-07-05 更新
- ASTM E917 建筑物和建筑物系统周期成本测算的标准操作规程
- ASTM E964 衡量建筑物和建筑系统的成本效益和投资比率的标准做法
* 在 ASTM E1369-15 发布之后有更新，请注意新发布标准的变化。
ASTM E1369-15的历代版本如下：
- 2020年 ASTM E1369-15(2020)e1 选择在建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的技术标准指南
- 2015年 ASTM E1369-15 选定用于处理建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中不确定性和风险的技术的标准指南
- 2011年 ASTM E1369-11 建筑及建筑系统经济评价的不确定性和风险选择技术标准指南
- 2007年 ASTM E1369-07e2 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的选择技术标准指南
- 2007年 ASTM E1369-07e1 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的选择技术标准指南
- 2007年 ASTM E1369-07 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的选择技术标准指南
- 2002年 ASTM E1369-02 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的技术选择的标准指南
- 1998年 ASTM E1369-98 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不定性和风险的技术选择
5.1 Investments in long-lived projects such as buildings are characterized by uncertainties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs, revenues, and other factors that affect project economics. Since future values of these variable factors are generally not known, it is difficult to make reliable economic evaluations.
5.2 The traditional approach to project investment analysis has been to apply economic methods of project evaluation to best-guess estimates of project input variables as if they were certain estimates and then to present results in single-value, deterministic terms. When projects are evaluated without regard to uncertainty of inputs to the analysis, decision makers may have insufficient information to measure and evaluate the risk of investing in a project having a different outcome from what is expected.
5.3 Risk analysis is the body of theory and practice that has evolved to help decision makers assess their risk exposures and risk attitudes so that the investment that is the best bet for them can be selected.
Note 1: The decision maker is the individual or group of individuals responsible for the investment decision. For example, the decision maker may be the chief executive officer or the board of directors.
5.4 Uncertainty and risk are defined as follows. Uncertainty (or certainty) refers to a state of knowledge about the variable inputs to an economic analysis. If the decision maker is unsure of input values, there is uncertainty. If the decision maker is sure, there is certainty. Risk refers either to risk exposure or risk attitude.
5.4.1 Risk exposure is the probability of investing in a project that will have a less favorable economic outcome than what is desired (the target) or is expected.
5.4.2 Risk attitude, also called risk preference, is the willingness of a decision maker to take a chance or gamble on an investment of uncertain outcome. The implications of decision makers having different risk attitudes is that a given investment of known risk exposure might be economically acceptable to an investor who is not particularly risk averse, but totally unacceptable to another investor who is very risk averse.
Note 2: For completeness, this guide covers both risk averse and risk taking attitudes. Most investors, however, are likely to be risk averse. The principles described herein apply both to the typical case where investors have different degrees of risk aversion and to the atypical case where some investors are risk taking while others are risk averse.
5.5 No single technique can be labeled the best technique in every situation for treating uncertainty, risk, or both. What is best depends on the following: availability of data, availability of resources (time, money, expertise), computational aids (for example, computer services), user understanding, ability to measure risk exposure and risk attitude, risk attitude of decision makers, level......
- 标准号
- ASTM E1369-15
- 发布
- 2015年
- 发布单位
- 美国材料与试验协会
- 替代标准
- ASTM E1369-15(2020)e1
- 当前最新
- ASTM E1369-15(2020)e1
- 引用标准
- ASTM E1057 ASTM E1074 ASTM E1121 ASTM E1185 ASTM E1946 ASTM E2204 ASTM E631 ASTM E833 ASTM E917 ASTM E964