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预测卢布尔雅那市交通流量的模型

Models for forecasting the traffic flow within the city of Ljubljana

作者:Gašper Petelin;Rok Hribar;Gregor Papa;

关键词:Traffic modeling,Time-series forecasting,Traffic-count data set,Machine learning,Model comparison

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-023-00600-6

发表时间:2023年

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摘要

高效的交通管理对于现代城市地区至关重要。智能交通流量预测系统的发展可以帮助减少旅行时间并最大限度地利用道路容量。然而,准确建模复杂的时空依赖关系可能是一项困难的任务,特别是在无法进行实时数据收集时。本研究旨在通过提出一种方案来解决这一挑战,该方案通过广泛的特征工程将历史交通模式与天气数据和公共假期等协变量结合起来。提出的方法使用斯洛文尼亚卢布尔雅那收集的新的真实世界交通模式数据集进行评估。构建的模型通过其准确性和超参数敏感性进行评估,为其性能提供见解。通过为现实世界情景提供实用解决方案,提出的方法提供了一种改善交通流量预测的有效手段,而无需依赖实时数据。


Abstract

Efficient traffic management is essential in modern urban areas. The development of intelligent traffic flow prediction systems can help to reduce travel times and maximize road capacity utilization. However, accurately modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies can be a difficult task, especially when real-time data collection is not possible. This study aims to tackle this challenge by proposing a solution that incorporates extensive feature engineering to combine historical traffic patterns with covariates such as weather data and public holidays. The proposed approach is assessed using a new real-world data set of traffic patterns collected in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The constructed models are evaluated for their accuracy and hyperparameter sensitivity, providing insights into their performance. By providing practical solutions for real-world scenarios, the proposed approach offers an effective means to improve traffic flow prediction without relying on real-time data.