COVID-19与航运运费之间的动态相互作用:分位数对分位数分析
The dynamic interaction between COVID-19 and shipping freight rates: a quantile on quantile analysis
作者:Khalid Khan;Chi Wei Su;Adnan Khurshid;Muhammad Umar;
关键词:Shipping industry,Freight rate,Coronavirus,Quantile-on-quantile,Wavelet transforms
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00566-x
发表时间:2022年
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摘要
这项研究确定了自2019年以来盛行的冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)对航运运费的影响。这一任务是通过使用小波分位数方法来完成的。研究结果证实,由于能源和原材料需求的下降以及船舶的不可用性,这一流行病实际上已经影响了航运运费成本。此外,COVID-19的传播对波罗的海干散货指数在高分位数上产生了积极影响,并被认为在长期内更具响应性。此外,COVID-19感染对波罗的海干散货轮指数和波罗的海清洁散货轮指数在中至高分位数上产生了负面影响,特别是在短期和中期内。 COVID-19对波罗的海清洁散货轮指数的积极影响已在高分位数上长期得到认可。这些发现支持了其理论模型,即COVID-19的传播和航运运费密切相关。研究结果表明,这种影响程度在短期内更具原因性。因此,航运业理想情况下应特别关注货运率动态的突然变化检测,并且关于这些复杂性的特定规定至关重要。
Abstract
This study determines the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that has been prevalent since the year 2019, on the shipping freights. This task has been undertaken by using the wavelet quantile on the quantile approach. The results of the study affirm that the pandemic has in fact affected the shipping freight costs, primarily due to the lower demand for energy and raw materials, and the unavailability of the vessels. In addition to this, the spread of COVID-19 has had a positive impact on the Baltic Dry Index in the high quantiles and is deemed to be more responsive in the long run. Also, the COVID-19 infection has had a negative effect on the Baltic Dry Tanker Index and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index in the medium to high quantiles, particularly in the short and the medium run. The positive impact of COVID-19 on the Baltic Clean Tanker Index has been recognized in the long term in the high quantiles. These findings support the theoretical model which states that the spread of COVID-19 and the shipping freights are closely related. The results suggest that the degree of the effect is more causal in the short. Therefore, the shipping industry must ideally pay special attention to the detection of abrupt changes in the freight rate dynamics, and the specific regulations regarding these intricacies are critical.
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