促进新能源汽车在替代政策和经济情景下的产业推动策略

Abstract

PurposeIn this study, we consider the European electro-mobility market from an industrial perspective, and focus on effects of market conditions and manufacturer strategies, with the objective to gain insight on what could inhibit the successful market penetration of electric powertrain vehicles.MethodsWe use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles.ResultsImpacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions.ConclusionIt is concluded from the results presented here that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral.