人工神经网络在水平曲线上的服务水平导出:埃及案例研究
Derivation of level of service by artificial neural networks at horizontal curves: a case study in Egypt
作者:Ahmed Mohamed Semeida;
关键词:Level of service,Highway geometry,Horizontal curves,Generalized linear modeling,Artificial neural networks
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12544-014-0152-2
发表时间:2015年
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摘要
目的多车道高速公路占许多国家高速公路网总长度的大部分。此类设施的几何设计和包括重型车辆百分比(HV)在内的交通量被认为是影响服务水平(LOS)的最重要因素,尤其是在水平曲线上。方法本文旨在通过两种方法探讨道路几何特征(包括水平曲线特性)与交通量(包括年均日交通量(AADT)和 HV,以及 LOS)之间的关系。第一个是广义线性建模(GLM)过程,第二个是人工神经网络(ANN)过程。在这项研究中,收集了分布在埃及四条多车道高速公路上的 78 条水平曲线上的交通和道路几何数据。其中两个位于沙漠地区,其他位于农业地区。结果分析表明,ANN 程序给出了估计 LOS 的最佳模型。此外,对 LOS 最有影响的变量是 AADT、HV 和水平曲线半径 (R)。最后,导出的模型具有可接受区域内的统计数据,而且在概念上也是合理的。结论之前的推论对于埃及道路当局非常重要,因为他们可以将其视为起源的第一步埃及高速公路容量手册。
Abstract
PurposeMulti-lane highways represent the majority of the total length of highway network at many countries. The geometric design of such facilities and the traffic volume which includes heavy vehicles percentage (HV) are considered the most important factors affecting the level of service (LOS), especially on the horizontal curves.MethodsThis paper aims to explore the relationship between the road geometric characteristics including horizontal curve properties and traffic volume including average annual daily traffic (AADT) and HV in one hand and LOS in the other hand by two methods. First is generalized linear modeling (GLM) procedure and second is the artificial neural networks (ANNs) procedure. In this research, the traffic and road geometric data are collected on 78 horizontal curves that are distributed on four multi-lane highways in Egypt. Two of them are located in desert area and the others in agricultural area.ResultsThe Analyses showed that the ANNs procedure give the best models for estimating LOS. Also, the most influential variables on LOS are AADT, HV, and radius of horizontal curve (R). Finally, the derived models have statistics within the acceptable regions and, also, they are conceptually reasonable.ConclusionsThe previous inferences are so important for road authorities in Egypt as they can consider them as a first step for origination of Egyptian highway capacity manual.
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