通过数据驱动的角色和场景将未来趋势和不确定性融入城市交通设计
Integrating future trends and uncertainties in urban mobility design via data-driven personas and scenarios
作者:Tjark Gall;Sebastian Hörl;Flore Vallet;Bernard Yannou;
关键词:Inclusive mobility,Persona,Synthetic population,Simulation,Design support
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-023-00622-0
发表时间:2023年
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摘要
城市流动性极大地增加了温室气体排放,并对各个群体带来负面社会影响,例如获得机会或基本服务的机会有限。向可持续和以人为本的城市交通系统过渡至关重要。然而,这也伴随着各种挑战。复杂的城市系统伴随着高度的不确定性(例如技术进步、人口统计、气候变化),而这些不确定性目前尚未得到很好的整合。可能的解决方案源于设计、政策制定和创新,但由于方法不兼容而普遍脱节。本文提出了一种方法,通过集成不同的方法来模拟未来的发展以及谁可以成为用户,从而提高设计未来城市交通系统的能力。研究问题是如何将未来用户的多样化需求整合到城市交通系统的设计过程中。所提出的基于场景的设计和角色允许创建数据驱动的原型角色(一组具有指定特征和行为的原型用户)测试其有效性,得出跨地理区域的分布,并将其转换为不同的 2030 年场景。这可以作为创建完整角色和合成群体的输入,作为设计师和模拟专家协作的中间设计对象。该方法在巴黎的情况下得到了典型应用。它有助于城市交通解决方案设计更加了解未来的不确定性和用户的多样化需求,从而更好地应对当今的挑战。该方法可以通过开放数据和可访问的源代码进行复制:https://github.com/TjarkGall/proto-persona-clustering。
Abstract
Urban mobility contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and comes with negative social impacts for various groups, such as limited accessibility to opportunity or basic services. Transitions towards sustainable and people-centred urban mobility systems are paramount. Yet, this is accompanied by various challenges. Complex urban systems are accompanied by high uncertainties (e.g., technological progress, demographics, climate change) which are currently not well integrated. Possible solutions originate from design, policymaking, and innovation, with a widespread disconnection due to non-compatible methods. This paper presents a method to improve the ability to design future urban mobility systems by integrating different approaches for modelling what the future could be and who could be the users. The research question is how diverse future user needs can be integrated in design processes for urban mobility systems. The proposed scenario-based design and personas allows to create data-driven proto-personas—a set of archetypical users with assigned characteristics and behaviours—test their validity, derive distributions across geographical areas, and transform them for different 2030 scenarios. This serves as input to create full personas and synthetic populations as intermediary design objects for the collaboration of designers and simulation experts. The methodology is exemplarily applied in the context of Paris. It contributes to urban mobility solution design that is more aware of future uncertainty and diverse needs of users, therefore, better capable to respond to today’s challenges. The approach is replicable with open data and accessible source code: https://github.com/TjarkGall/proto-persona-clustering.
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